F. Auger-Aliassime comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -15.0 to 21.5, with at least one match where F. Auger-Aliassime was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — F. Auger-Aliassime has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -44 over recent matches.

D. Medvedev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.4, meaning D. Medvedev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Medvedev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.