J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-17 opposition. Serve quality has been average (6.9/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.

F. Auger-Aliassime comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.8, meaning F. Auger-Aliassime has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving F. Auger-Aliassime vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — F. Auger-Aliassime has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.