M. Berrettini comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +0.6 with a downward trend. M. Berrettini is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving M. Berrettini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

P. Carreno-Busta has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.8, meaning P. Carreno-Busta has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving P. Carreno-Busta vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — P. Carreno-Busta has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.