Closing Line Value Report — Tuesday, March 17, 2026
The CLV tracker recorded 75 completed matches on March 17, 2026, covering 5 events including Asuncion. Pinnacle markets opened and closed with 50 notable moves, reflecting where sharp bettors placed their money ahead of the closing line. This page documents every result and line shift for the day.
Top Closing Line Value Shifts
Sharp money left its clearest mark on T. Pereira in Zadar. Opening at 2.56 and closing at 3.11, the 17.7% Pinnacle move was the day's largest. Result: a loss (5-7 2-6). The day's second-biggest move came from Miami, where E. Jacquemot shifted 15.6% (2.54 → 3.01) — a strong CLV signal of -15.6% for those who backed early. Rounding out the top three, A. Hernandez in Morelos moved 14.8% from open, finishing at 3.85.
Against the Odds: Upset Report
That day produced 10 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from Miami: E. Jacquemot beat D. Vidmanova 6-7 7-5 7-5 at 2.54 — a result foreshadowed by significant line movement. In Miami, C. O'Connell overcame 2.69 odds to defeat A. Blockx 4-6 6-4 6-4. These upsets saw little line movement before close, meaning the market stayed with the favourite until the match started. In such cases, underdog winners captured outcome value — winning despite the closing odds being against them — rather than closing line value, where a bettor secures better odds than the final market price.
Asuncion Final — CLV and Match Report
Asuncion concluded with J. E. Schiessl defeating J. Ingildsen 6-4 6-3. From a closing line value perspective, the final produced a 3.5% Pinnacle line move on J. E. Schiessl. Bettors who backed J. E. Schiessl at the opening price of 1.42 faced negative CLV (-3.4%) — the line drifted before close, though the result proved the market wrong. The Pinnacle versus market comparison (how Pinnacle's closing price compared to the average of other major bookmakers) showed Pinnacle was softer than other bookmakers in pricing this final — Pinnacle offered slightly better value on the favourite than the market average.
Closing Line Value Statistics
Closing line value data: 75 matches tracked, 72% favourite win rate, 3.9% average Pinnacle line move. 39 of 75 matches saw the opening favourite's odds shorten before close — a sign of sustained market confidence. The largest single move was 17.7% on T. Pereira in Zadar. The Pinnacle versus market column (comparing Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers) showed the widest gap in M. Cassone in Miami, where Pinnacle and the average bookmaker differed by +27.9%.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The Pinnacle versus market column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% measures the value of your bet relative to the closing line: ((closing odds − odds you bet at) / odds you bet at) × 100. On this page we use Pinnacle's opening price as the reference — the CLV% shows what you would have captured if you had bet at open. A positive CLV% means the odds shortened from open to close (you would have got a better price than the final market); a negative CLV% means the odds drifted. All calculations use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.
