Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 37. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.3 to 21.6, with at least one match where C. Alcaraz was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving C. Alcaraz vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
T. Machac has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.2, meaning T. Machac has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving T. Machac vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — T. Machac has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -13 over recent matches.
Recent form
4W 1L last 5
| 14 Apr | Virtanen | 6-4 6-2 | W |
| 12 Apr | Sinner | 6-7 3-6 | L |
| 11 Apr | Vacherot | 6-4 6-4 | W |
| 10 Apr | Bublik | 6-3 6-0 | W |
| 9 Apr | Etcheverry | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 14 Apr | Baez | 2-6 6-4 6-1 | W |
| 9 Apr | Sinner | 1-6 7-6 3-6 | L |
| 8 Apr | Cerundolo | 6-7 3-6 | W |
| 6 Apr | Altmaier | 4-6 6-1 3-6 | W |
| 2 Apr | Jodar | 6-4 4-6 6-3 | L |

