Odds
Player analysis
C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.
L. Musetti has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.1 to 17.6, with at least one match where L. Musetti was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving L. Musetti vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
2W 3L last 5
| 6 Mar | Musetti | 5-7 1-6 | W |
| 26 Jan | Musetti | 6-2 7-5 6-4 | L |
| 24 Jan | Musetti | 5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 | L |
| 22 Jan | Musetti | 6-3 6-3 6-4 | L |
| 11 Jan | Musetti | 6-7 3-6 | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Turin | Indoor | Alcaraz | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Rome | Clay | Semi-finals | Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6 | |
| Monte Carlo | Clay | Final | Alcaraz | 6-3 1-6 0-6 | |
| ATP Miami | Hard | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 | |
| ATP Beijing | Hard | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 6-2 6-2 | |
| ATP French Open | Clay | 1/8-finals | Alcaraz | 6-3 6-2 6-2 | |
| Hamburg | Clay | Final | Musetti | 4-6 7-6 4-6 |