A. Rublev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -2.1 to 17.1, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Rublev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.

C. Alcaraz has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — C. Alcaraz has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -22 over recent matches.