A. De Minaur comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.4, meaning A. De Minaur has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving A. De Minaur vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.

M. Arnaldi arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.2. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving M. Arnaldi vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +10 over the last five.