CagliariClayFinal3 May 2026 · 15:00
H. Hurkacz
#63 · Poland
VS
M. Arnaldi
#103 · Italy
HURKACZ
1.334
·
ARNALDI
3.51

Odds

Market
Hurkacz
Arnaldi
Change
Winner
1.334
3.51
Total
line 22.0
1.855
Over 22.0
2
Under 22.0
Total
line 22.5
2
Over 22.5
1.847
Under 22.5
Handicap
games
1.862
-3.5 games
2
+3.5 games
Handicap
games
2.15
-4.0 games
1.73
+4 games

Player analysis

Hubert Hurkacz enters the Cagliari final as the higher-ranked player at No. 63, seeking his second title of the season on clay. The Polish right-hander has shown strong form throughout the tournament, recording wins over Matteo Berrettini, Emilio Nava, and Zachary Svajda en route to the final, though he suffered a loss to Lorenzo Musetti in recent matches. Hurkacz's aggressive baseline game and serve have been effective on the red clay in Sardinia, and he holds no prior head-to-head record against his opponent. This represents a significant opportunity for the 27-year-old to add another ATP title to his career resume.

DS 9.41Trend down

Matteo Arnaldi, ranked No. 103 from Italy, reaches the Cagliari final after defeating Nicolas Borges, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, and Federico Arnabolli in successive rounds. The Italian left-hander has demonstrated solid tournament progression despite a recent loss to Dusan Lajovic, showcasing his ability to compete at this level on clay courts. With no established head-to-head record against Hurkacz, Arnaldi will look to capitalize on home support and his improved confidence from advancing through the draw. At 23 years old, the San Benedetto native has the chance to claim his first ATP title in front of a supportive Italian crowd.

DS 5.52Trend down

Recent form

Clay court stats

Hurkacz
Stat
Arnaldi
56.8%
Win rate
63.4%
71–54
W–L
116–67

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted50%
BP saved40%
Aces10
Double faults2
1st serve %50%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces4
Double faults4