J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-20 opposition. Serve quality has been average (7.0/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +18 over the last five.

A. Mannarino comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -13.5 to 18.0, with at least one match where A. Mannarino was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.9/10, leaving A. Mannarino vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +10 over the last five.