D. Medvedev comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -6.4, meaning D. Medvedev has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving D. Medvedev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — D. Medvedev has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -10 over recent matches.

S. Tsitsipas has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Matches have been close throughout — average DS of +4.7 with a downward trend. S. Tsitsipas is winning on the scoreboard but not pulling away. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +24 over the last five.