MadridClay1/16-finals26 Apr 2026 · 11:00
J. Sinner
#1 · Italy
VS
E. Moller
#169 · Denmark

Odds

Market
Sinner
Moller
Change
Winner
Total
line 16.5
1.81
Over 16.5
2.09
Under 16.5
Total
line 17.5
2.21
Over 17.5
1.59
Under 17.5
Handicap
games
2
-7.5 games
1.88
+7.5 games
Handicap
games
1.44
-6.5 games
2.61
+6.5 games

Player analysis

J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-31 opposition. Serve quality has been average (7.0/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.

DS 14.89Trend down

E. Moller has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -4.1, meaning E. Moller has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving E. Moller vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Moller has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -24 over recent matches.

DS -4.06Trend down

Recent form

Clay court stats

Sinner
Stat
Moller
71.8%
Win rate
68.4%
89–35
W–L
121–56

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won70%
BP converted50%
Aces4
Double faults2
BP saved70%
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won40%
BP converted20%
BP saved50%
Aces3
Double faults5