A. Sabalenka comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -0.5 to 17.5, with at least one match where A. Sabalenka was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

J. Paolini comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.4, meaning J. Paolini has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving J. Paolini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.