WTA Indian WellsHardFinal15 Mar 2026 · 19:10
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
E. Rybakina
#2 · Kazakhstan
SABALENKA
1.67
·
RYBAKINA
2.36

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Winner
1.67
2.36
Total
line 17.5
1.17
Over 17.5
4.05
Under 17.5
Total
line 18.0
1.21
Over 18.0
3.74
Under 18.0
Handicap
games
10.2
-6.5 games
1.04
+6.5 games
Handicap
games
9.6
-6.0 games
1.05
+6 games

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-15 opposition. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +11.3 (range: 6.6 to 17.5). Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Sabalenka has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.

DS 11.28Trend up

E. Rybakina shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 36. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.7. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving E. Rybakina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — E. Rybakina has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -17 over recent matches.

DS 7.68Trend mixed

Recent form

Hard court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Rybakina
72.8%
Win rate
68.8%
302–113
W–L
207–94

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved50%
Aces5
Double faults3
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted50%
BP saved40%
Aces5
Double faults2

Head to head

Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.

45
Hard 23
Indoor 02
Clay 20
A. Sabalenka vs E. Rybakina head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
WTA Indian WellsHardFinalSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6
WTA Australian OpenHardAustralian Open - FinalRybakina4-6 6-4 4-6
Finals - RiyadhIndoorFinalRybakina3-6 6-7
WuhanHardQuarter-finalsSabalenka6-3 6-3
CincinnatiHardQuarter-finalsRybakina1-6 4-6
BerlinClayQuarter-finalsSabalenka7-6 3-6 7-6
WTA Finals - RiyadhIndoorRybakina4-6 6-3 1-6
WTA MadridClaySemi-finalsSabalenka6-1 5-7 6-7
WTA BrisbaneHardFinalRybakina0-6 3-6