Odds
Player analysis
A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-29 opposition. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
C. Gauff comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 29 on average. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.0. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving C. Gauff vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
5W 0L last 5
| 27 Mar | Rybakina | 6-4 6-3 | W |
| 26 Mar | Baptiste | 6-4 6-4 | W |
| 23 Mar | McNally | 6-4 6-2 | W |
| 23 Mar | Zheng | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 21 Mar | Li | 7-6 6-4 | W |
5W 0L last 5
| 26 Mar | Muchova | 6-1 6-1 | W |
| 25 Mar | Bencic | 3-6 6-1 3-6 | W |
| 23 Mar | Cirstea | 4-6 6-3 2-6 | W |
| 22 Mar | Parks | 6-3 0-6 1-6 | W |
| 20 Mar | Cocciaretto | 6-3 4-6 3-6 | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Sabalenka | 7-6 6-2 | ||
| French Open | Clay | Final | Gauff | 7-6 2-6 4-6 | |
| Madrid | Clay | Final | Sabalenka | 6-3 7-6 | |
| WTA Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Semi-finals | Gauff | 6-7 3-6 | |
| WTA Wuhan | Hard | Semi-finals | Sabalenka | 1-6 6-4 6-4 | |
| WTA Australian Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Sabalenka | 6-7 4-6 | |
| WTA US Open | Hard | Final | Gauff | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | |
| WTA Indian Wells | Hard | Quarter-finals | Sabalenka | 4-6 | |
| Toronto | Hard | 1/8-finals | Gauff | 5-7 6-4 6-7 | |
| Lexington | Hard | 1/8-finals | Gauff | 7-6 4-6 6-4 |