Odds
Player analysis
A. Sabalenka comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 23 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -0.5 to 17.5, with at least one match where A. Sabalenka was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.4/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 34. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -18.6 to 22.1, with at least one match where J. Pegula was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.
Recent form
1W 4L last 5
| 26 Apr | Pegula | 1-6 4-6 | W |
| 24 Apr | Pegula | 6-4 6-4 | L |
| 5 Apr | Pegula | 6-2 6-2 | L |
| 4 Apr | Pegula | 6-4 5-7 6-3 | L |
| 3 Apr | Pegula | 3-6 6-3 6-2 | L |
1W 4L last 5
| 28 Apr | Sabalenka | 6-2 2-6 6-7 | W |
| 27 Apr | Sabalenka | 6-7 6-3 6-2 | L |
| 25 Apr | Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 | L |
| 23 Apr | Sabalenka | 7-5 6-3 | L |
| 28 Mar | Sabalenka | 6-2 4-6 6-3 | L |
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
Career meetings between these two players (all tournaments), not only this event. The match at the top of the page is the current tournament fixture.
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Sabalenka | 6-4 2-6 6-3 | ||
| Wuhan | Hard | Semi-finals | Pegula | 6-2 4-6 6-7 | |
| US Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | |
| Miami | Hard | Final | Sabalenka | 7-5 6-2 | |
| WTA US Open | Hard | Final | Sabalenka | 5-7 5-7 | |
| WTA Cincinnati | Hard | Final | Sabalenka | 6-3 7-5 | |
| WTA Finals - Cancun | Indoor | Pegula | 4-6 3-6 | ||
| Finals - Cancun | Indoor | Sabalenka | 3-6 5-7 | ||
| Rome | Clay | 1/8-finals | Sabalenka | 6-1 6-4 |