WimbledonGrass1/8-finals6 Jul 2025 · 17:10
A. Sabalenka
#1 · Belarus
VS
E. Mertens
#19 · Belgium
SABALENKA
1.23
·
MERTENS
4.67

Odds

Market
Sabalenka
Mertens
Winner
1.23
4.67
Total
line 16.5
1.11
Over 16.5
4.85
Under 16.5
Total
line 17.0
1.14
Over 17.0
5.76
Under 17.0
Handicap
games
13.5
-8.5 games
1.02
+8.5 games
Handicap
games
11.8
-8.0 games
1.03
+8 games

Player analysis

A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-9 opposition. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +10.6 (range: -2.0 to 22.9). The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.

DS 10.57Trend up

E. Mertens has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -21.1 to 30.1, with at least one match where E. Mertens was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving E. Mertens vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.

DS 11.37Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartWLLLW

2W 3L last 5

9 MarMertens2-6 3-6W
8 MarMertens6-2 6-1L
18 FebGauff2-6 7-6 6-3L
17 FebMertens6-2 6-2L
15 FebBouzkova2-6 2-6W
Recent form bar chartLLLLL

0W 5L last 5

15 MarSabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6L
14 MarSabalenka6-3 6-4L
12 MarSabalenka7-6 6-4L
10 MarSabalenka6-2 6-4L
8 MarSabalenka6-4 6-1L

Grass court stats

Sabalenka
Stat
Mertens
66.1%
Win rate
56.2%
41–21
W–L
41–32

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %70%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won60%
BP converted40%
BP saved80%
Aces8
Double faults3
1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted50%
BP saved70%
Aces4
Double faults4

Head to head

70
Grass 10
Clay 20
Hard 30
Indoor 10
A. Sabalenka vs E. Mertens head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
WimbledonGrass1/8-finalsSabalenka6-4 7-6
MadridClay1/16-finalsSabalenka3-6 6-2 6-1
StuttgartClayQuarter-finalsSabalenka6-4 6-1
WTA US OpenHard1/8-finalsSabalenka2-6 4-6
Australian OpenHard1/16-finalsSabalenka6-2 6-3
US OpenHard1/8-finalsSabalenka4-6 1-6
ZhuhaiIndoorSabalenka6-4 3-6 7-5