Odds
Player analysis
A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-9 opposition. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +10.6 (range: -2.0 to 22.9). The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.
E. Mertens has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -21.1 to 30.1, with at least one match where E. Mertens was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving E. Mertens vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.
Recent form
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wimbledon | Grass | 1/8-finals | Sabalenka | 6-4 7-6 | |
| Madrid | Clay | 1/16-finals | Sabalenka | 3-6 6-2 6-1 | |
| Stuttgart | Clay | Quarter-finals | Sabalenka | 6-4 6-1 | |
| WTA US Open | Hard | 1/8-finals | Sabalenka | 2-6 4-6 | |
| Australian Open | Hard | 1/16-finals | Sabalenka | 6-2 6-3 | |
| US Open | Hard | 1/8-finals | Sabalenka | 4-6 1-6 | |
| Zhuhai | Indoor | Sabalenka | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |

